The 17th edition of the European Championships takes place this summer, with hosts Germany among the favorites, alongside defending champions Italy. However, market leaders England and closely trailing France are the top contenders.

Where does the value lie? Italy won Euro 2020 despite being long-shot contenders at +1200, so could a similarly priced team lift the trophy in Berlin on July 14 this year? Here’s an analysis of the leading candidates and some potential dark horses for Euro 2024.

England

FIFA Ranking among European Teams at the start of the tournament: 3
Rank in Euro 2024 qualification: 5

England boasts a talented squad, especially in attack, under the guidance of Gareth Southgate, who has led them to a World Cup semifinal and a European Championship final. Despite being favorites, their 58-year drought without a major trophy casts doubts, especially against elite sides. Though they breezed through qualifying, losses to Brazil and a last-minute draw with Belgium in friendlies raise concerns. The absence of top scorer Harry Kane in those matches was a factor; his presence could be crucial, particularly if England faces France in a potential semifinal on July 10.

France

FIFA Ranking among European Teams at the start of the tournament: 1
Rank in Euro 2024 qualification: 2

France’s recent tournament success under Didier Deschamps, including a World Cup win and reaching two major finals, highlights their strength. Despite a 2-0 loss to Germany in March and a mixed record in past European Championships, France remains a formidable force. Their two wins against Southgate’s England, coupled with a higher global and qualifying ranking, suggest they could edge out their rivals.

Germany

FIFA Ranking among European Teams at the start of the tournament: 9
Rank in Euro 2024 qualification: n/a

Germany, the host nation, hasn’t won the European Championship since 1984. Despite an 18-month hiatus from competitive fixtures and early World Cup exits, new manager Julian Nagelsmann brings hope. Wins against France, USA, and Netherlands have restored confidence. With experienced players like İlkay Gündoğan and Toni Kroos, supported by young talents like Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz, Germany could leverage home advantage for a deep run.

Portugal

FIFA Ranking among European Teams at the start of the tournament: 4
Rank in Euro 2024 qualification: 1

Portugal had a stellar qualifying campaign, winning all 10 matches and scoring 36 goals while conceding just two. Drawn in a relatively weak group, they’re well-placed for a deep run. With a squad featuring numerous players from Manchester-based clubs, Portugal’s quality and favorable draw make them strong contenders.

Spain

FIFA Ranking among European Teams at the start of the tournament: 6
Rank in Euro 2024 qualification: 3

Spain, though not as dominant as in their 2008-2012 heyday, reached the Euro 2020 semifinals and lost just once in qualifying. Drawn into a tough group with Croatia and Italy, Spain faces tight matches, often decided by penalties. They hope to turn these narrow margins in their favor this time.

Italy

FIFA Ranking among European Teams at the start of the tournament: 7
Rank in Euro 2024 qualification: 18

Italy’s recent form is a mixed bag. Despite winning Euro 2020, they missed the last two World Cups and struggled in Euro 2024 qualifiers. However, an unbeaten run in the 2023/24 season shows potential. Facing England in the quarterfinals could end their campaign early.

Netherlands

FIFA Ranking among European Teams at the start of the tournament: 5
Rank in Euro 2024 qualification: 12

The Netherlands faces an immediate challenge against France, who beat them in qualifying. Despite a talented squad and tactical flexibility under Ronald Koeman, they’ve struggled against stronger teams. A unified tactical approach is crucial for their success.

Belgium

FIFA Ranking among European Teams at the start of the tournament: 2
Rank in Euro 2024 qualification: 4

Belgium, with stars like Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne, has strong prospects but faces a tough path. Likely needing to beat England and France in the knockout phase, their defensive weaknesses might hinder their progress.

The Outsiders

Pinnacle’s odds suggest only a 14.5% chance for the remaining 16 teams to win Euro 2024. While Greece’s 2004 triumph shows anything is possible, similar long shots are unlikely to prevail in Germany. However, teams like Hungary and Austria, with strong recent form, could exceed expectations. Regular dark horses Croatia and Denmark, both tough to beat, might also make deep runs, especially with Denmark likely to advance from Group C alongside England.